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Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to amount to $107.5 billion, witnessing a y-o-y growth of 1.85%, and non-oil exports to reach $91.7 billion, a y-o-y growth of 7.39%, during the third quarter of the fiscal year.
Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to reach $82.7 billion, a growth of 7.8%. “The positive growth in India’s exports is attributed to factors like India’s continued strong economic activity due to sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, improving demand prospects in trading partners, supported by expected global monetary easing,” it stated.
The outlook, it added, is subject to risks of global uncertainty in select advanced and emerging economies, geoeconomic fragmentation, the Middle East and West Asia crisis, risk of intensification of protectionist policies, and global supply chain disruptions, among other factors. The growth rate in merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil & non-gems and jewellery exports are likely to continue in the last quarter of the financial year.
The Export-Import Bank of India is a specialised financial institution established in 1982. Its primary function is to finance, facilitate and promote India’s international trade. Offering a wide range of financial services to Indian exporters and importers, some of these include services like export credit, pre-shipment credit, post-shipment credit and overseas investment finance.
In Q2, the bank had forecasted India’s merchandise exports to be $111.7 billion, and non-oil exports at $89.8 billion.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports based on several external and domestic factors.
Forecast of growth in merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight, based on its ELI model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4th quarter of FY 2025 (i.e., January-March 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of February 2024.
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